The Forge Comprehensive Forging Success Calculator
Calculate the complete probability chain from ores to your target weapon or armor variant
Comprehensive Forging Success Calculator
Select your target weapon or armor variant, input your ore composition, and calculate the complete probability chain: ore composition → weapon/armor type → variant → final success probability.
How It Works
- Complete Probability Chain: This calculator computes the full probability chain from your ore composition to the final weapon or armor variant you want.
- Step 1 - Category Probability: Based on your total ore count, the game determines which weapon or armor category you'll get (e.g., Dagger, Great Sword, Light Helmet, Heavy Chestplate).
- Step 2 - Variant Probability: Once a category is determined, the game rolls for a specific variant within that category (e.g., Long Sword has 1/2 chance in Great Swords category).
- Final Probability: The final success probability is calculated as: Category Probability × Variant Probability.
- Expected Attempts: The average number of forging attempts needed to get your target item (1 / Final Probability).
- Confidence Levels: Shows how many attempts you need for 50%, 90%, and 99% confidence of success.
Forging Strategy Tips
Optimize Ore Count
- Different ore counts have different category probability distributions
- Use the Forge Calculator to find the optimal ore count for your target category
- Higher ore counts generally favor higher-tier categories
- Balance between category probability and variant probability
Understand Variant Chances
- Common variants (1/1 chance) are guaranteed if you get the category
- Rare variants (1/16 chance) require many attempts even with high category probability
- Consider if a common variant in a rare category is better than a rare variant in a common category
- Use this calculator to compare different strategies
Plan Your Resources
- Calculate expected attempts before committing resources
- For rare items, prepare for multiple forging attempts
- Consider the cost of each attempt when planning
- Use confidence levels to plan your resource budget
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Frequently Asked Questions
How does the comprehensive forging calculator work?
The calculator computes the complete probability chain from your ore composition to your target weapon or armor variant. It first calculates the probability of getting the target category based on ore count, then multiplies by the variant probability within that category.
What is the difference between category and variant probability?
Category probability determines which weapon or armor type you get (e.g., Dagger, Great Sword, Light Helmet). Variant probability determines which specific item within that category you get (e.g., Long Sword has 1/2 chance in Great Swords category).
How accurate are the probability calculations?
The calculations use the exact probability tables from The Forge game. Category probabilities are based on total ore count, and variant probabilities are based on the in-game chance values for each variant.
What does "Expected Forging Attempts" mean?
This is the average number of attempts you would need to get your target item. It's calculated as 1 divided by the final success probability. For example, a 10% chance item has an expected value of 10 attempts.
Are the probabilities guaranteed?
No. These are statistical probabilities. You might get the item on your first attempt, or you might need many more than expected. The calculator shows the mathematical likelihood, not a guarantee.
How do I find the average ore multiplier?
Use The Forge Calculator to input your ore composition. It will calculate the average multiplier for you. Alternatively, you can calculate it manually: sum all (ore count × ore multiplier) and divide by total ore count.